Israel was built to survive its enemies. The greatest threat it now faces may come from within.In 2023, hundreds of thousands of Israelis filled the streets to fight a plan to remake the courts, and reservist pilots warned they would stop serving. Then came October 7, a brief season of unity, and a return to recrimination deeper than before. Since then, the fight over drafting the ultra-Orthodox has pitted exhausted reservists against yeshiva students. Ministers have talked openly of defying the Supreme Court. The October 7 inquiry has been pushed past an election many Israelis call the most consequential in their history.In House Divided, economist and retired law enforcement lieutenant Robert F. Geissler asks a question that once seemed unthinkable: could Israel slide into civil war?Drawing on history from the Altalena affair to the Rabin assassination, Geissler maps the country's "four tribes" (secular, religious Zionist, ultra-Orthodox, and Arab). He examines the fault lines running through the courts, the army, the police, the economy, and the media. He then lays out five concrete scenarios for collapse, each with its trigger, its escalation ladder, and the points of no return: A government that defies its own Supreme CourtA contested election that no bloc can resolveA draft confrontation that pits the state against a communityA spark on the West Bank or the Temple MountA political assassination in an age of social mediaBalanced, clear-eyed, and grounded in incentives rather than slogans, House Divided also identifies the brakes that have kept Israel together and the reforms that could restore a durable settlement. It includes an early-warning checklist for readers who want to watch events unfold.
